December 2nd Budget Forum - Q and A Will Not Be On the Agenda

Hi Yupette,

In the event you wondered about Thursday's Budget Forum with County Manager Barbara Donnellan, the meeting will consist of a presentation by the County Manager followed by break-out sessions with citizens sitting around a table with County Staff "facilitators". So bring a written statement if you have something to share with everyone who attends.

Kathy - 22204

Virginia, Maryland, D.C. Adults Seeking to "Sunset" Zimmerman, Graham, Other WMATA Board Members

Hello, Yupette,

The Adults in Virginia, Maryland, and DC politics have heard too many excuses from Jim Graham and Chris Zimmerman for Metro's poor performance. They are seeking to "sunset" both for having been on the WMATA Board too long with WMATA's performance and service quality gradually deteriorating. The recent escalator incidents were apparently the last straw. Other current WMATA members may follow Graham and Zimmerman into retirement. Thanks for your blog.

Richmond Pol

School System's Focus is on Team Sports, Not Obesity Prevention

Hello, Yupette,

When is the Arlington School System going to get its act together regarding childhood and teenage obesity prevention? There is a lot of talk. The schools are supposedly serving healthier food. But the number of overweight and obese children appears to be increasing. Why all the emphasis on team sports and winning football, basketball, soccer, etc. championships? So much of our taxes goes to the school system, and we have mediocrity and more mediocrity to show for it.

I hope we will have a School Board candidate running against the incumbent next year who puts fitness over team sports.

Cathleen

No More Arlington Winters for Me

Hello, Ms. Yupette,

I am 62 years old and retired a year ago. It was a big mistake for me to spend last January and February in Arlington. Now that Barbara "We're Working to Fix It" Donnellan is back as County Manager I am not going to spend January and February in Arlington and I am looking forward to an enjoyable mid-winter in a Florida rental apartment.

I am tired of a County that can't provide the basics, like effective snow removal, but can spend tens of millions on entertainment and recreation amenities.

I hope Arlington has a mild winter, but I won't be here to experience whatever weather this winter brings.

J.C.

County Board Heavily Promoting Bicycles, Ignoring Taxis and Shared-Vehicle Transportation Alternatives.

Hello Yupette,

Did you hear what the guy from the taxicab industry said at the last County Board Meeting? There is an abundance of taxicabs in Arlington County. So why isn't the County Board promoting taxicabs as a means of significantly mitigating traffic? Because the County Board wants everyone to ride bicycles. They spent another $421,000 on bicycle infrastructure around Army-Navy Drive at their last meeting. Same County Board that approved the construction of more than 30,000 new parking spaces in Arlington over the past decade. What is wrong with them? Why do I have to ride a bicycle in December when it's 45 degrees and raining?

L.K.

Fisette Ordered County Staff to Promote Artisphere's December 4th Gay-Lesbian 'Kiss and Hug'

Hello, Ms. Yupette,

I am employed at the Artisphere and I was under the impression that the Artisphere is for ALL Arlingtonians.

I was shocked when County Board Chairman, Jay Fisette, ordered us to promote AGLA's December 4th 'Kiss and Hug' Gala at the Artisphere. It appears that Mr. Fisette wants to make the Artisphere into a Gay-Lesbian nightclub.

That's not all. I was told the other day the the reason there's been no philanthropy to take the Artisphere private is because the County Board wants PRCR to continue to run the Artisphere indefinitely, so as to use Artisphere events to promote the County Board's pet interests.

How's about that for sleaziness?

Anon. Artisphere Employee

ASPAN Should Not Manage A New Homeless Treatment / Prevention Program

Hi Yupette,

Happy Thanksgiving. Another Thanksgiving where we overfeed the homeless only to ignore them the rest of the year.

I'm all for a new homeless treatment / prevention facility. I don't want ASPAN running it. Their name says it all. Arlington Street People's Assistance Network.

This keeping the homeless homeless has gone hand in hand with Yuppieism and Gentrification. It's completely irresponsible to spend tens of millions each year to keep people on the street, and build an ever-larger shelters and an ever-larger bureaucracy to manage "street people".

If the County Board of Recreation, Entertainment, and Gentrification ever decides to fund a new homeless treatment / prevention facility it should look for an organization that drastically reduces homelessness to run the program.

Kathy - 22204

Arlington County Doesn't Deserve a AAA Bond Rating

Hello, Yupette,

I've looked at recent bond referenda and the ways the County is spending money from all sources. Whatever excuses the County Board makes for including street repaving, parks maintenance, and other operational expenses in bond referenda the reality is they've made so many promises to so many groups for expensive infrastructure that they can't avoid putting stuff like synthetic playing field replacement into future bond referenda. Arlington County does not deserve a AAA bond rating. It deserves a AA bond rating.

Dennis

Fisette, County Board, Zoned on Zoloft?

Hey Yupette,

Thanks for this blog.

I also believe that Chairman Jay Fisette and the Arlington County Board are Zoned on Zoloft. It would explain Fisette's spaciness and the County Board's being oblivious to anything that doesn't interest them.

Mike - Westover

O'Leary's Tax Decal Competition Sends a Terrible Message To Children

Hello, Yupette,

I recently moved to Arlington County from Fairfax County, where there is no window decal to show you paid the 'car tax' on the vehicle. I am astounded that my child is being encouraged to participate in a vehicle decal design competition. This vehicle decal program wastes at least $250,000, generates tons of waste paper and plastic unnecessarily, wastes vehicle owners' time and energy, and encourages our children to participate in the design of next year's decal. Mr. O'Leary's program sends a terrible message to school children that all this waste is OK. Is there any way for me to opt out of this program?

Amy

County Board / Fisette Use Citizens, Advisory Groups, Civic Associations, Like Allergy Sufferers Use Facial Tissue

Hello Ms. Yupette,

I volunteered for one of the County Board's / Jay Fisette's citizen advisory groups. Bad move on my part. It's obvious that Jay and the County Board use Arlington's citizens, advisory groups, and civic associations the way allergy sufferers use facial tissue. Either the agenda is rigged to produce the results Gentrification Jay, aka Gourmet Jay, aka Giveaway Jay and the County Board desire. Or, the selection of citizens who serve reflects Jay's and the County Board's priorities. Or both. A Lose-Lose for Arlington citizens and taxpayers. Next year, another advisory group or committee composed of more gullible citizens. How did I come to my senses? Someone who was used and abused by Jay Fisette and the County Board ten years ago told me what I'd gotten into. Please, Please, don't let yourselves be lured into being shills for Jay Fisette and the County Board's self-serving agenda.

J.P.

Fairlington Citizens Tell CivFed - Fairlington Citizens Assoc. Doesn't Represent Us

Dear Arlington Yupette,

I and others in our group, Better Fairlington, e-mailed the Civic Federation yesterday. We don't want the Fairlington Citizens Association, Inc. representing us, nor do we want the Fairlington-Shirlingtion NCC representative (appointed by the FCA) representing us.

There is entirely too much micro-managing of our lives by this organization. This organization also engages in other inappropriate activities in and around Fairlington - the FCA's ongoing feud with Shirlington restaurant owners being the most embarrassing.

Almost all of us are college graduates and our lives are already governed by County ordinances and condominium regulations. We don't need or want another organization that claims it knows what's best for us making us follow its often-irrational agenda.

Best regards,

Susan

betterfairlington@yahoo.com

Reasonable Bribes 'A Big Reason' for Trader Joes Locating in Arlington

Hello, Ms. Yupette,

I spoke with a super-friendly Trader Joes employee about TJ opening a new store in Clarendon. He told me that the amount of bribes TJ would have to pay to open a new store in DC was "impossible" and the amount of bribes TJ had to pay to Arlington's elected and unelected officials was "quite reasonable, less than a half million." He was also surprised that Arlington agreed to so little on-site parking, given that 25 - 35 TJ employees will be working in the store and only a few will be able to afford to live within Metro corridors. So I guess a half million dollars still goes a long way in Arlington.

Janet - 22201

County Board Reportedly Helping Fairlington Civic Association Extort Shirlington Restaurant Owners

Hello, Yupette,

Did you know what all the fuss was about today and last Saturday at the County Board Meeting concerning awnings, music, and seating at Shirlington Village restaurants? Well, it's like this. For years the Fairlington Citizens Association Incorporated (the civic association in Fairlington) has been trying to extort Shirlington restaurants into placing expensive full-page ads in the FCA's monthly newsletter. And the restaurant owners have repeatedly said - no way. So about 5 years ago the FCA's leadership hit upon the bright idea of making constant complaints against the restaurant owners for noise, seating, and other petty violations until the restaurant owners capitulated. Latest twist involves Chris Zimmerman ratcheting up the pressure on the restaurant owners in return for the FCA's support and contributions to Boss Zimmerman's recent campaign. Of course Fairlington is a half-mile from Shirlington See how rotten these local pols and their ward heelers can be?

Susan

Pike, EFC Projects - 'Development for the Sake of Development' Pushed by County Board, Planners, REITs, 'Community Leaders'

Hello Yupette,

I attended the East Falls Church planning forum yesterday. My son, who lives near Bailey's Crossroads, attended the Columbia Pike Planning forum at Godwin House.

It's clear that these projects are 'development for the sake of development' pushed by the Arlington County Board, real estate trusts and developers, the County's bloated planning staff that's looking for more projects to justify its existence, and the County Board's pet 'community leaders'.

These were more charade forums where the affected residents are not allowed to ask questions or make comments, only submit written comments - for the record.

Sad, sad, sad to see massive development imposed on suburban neighborhoods that only want the basics upgraded and better public services, like streets paved and modern street lighting installed.

Larry - 22205

The Crisis Yet to Come

The Atlanta Fed's blog from October 27, 2010 has a chilling piece on the source of the downturn in revenue at the state level (and by implication the local level, too). Quite simply, they note and then back with data that (duh! - with hindsight) real estate assessments lag the market. Hence the downturn has to have other sources, specifically declines in individual income tax receipts and sales tax receipts. Real estate tax receipts have actually continued to rise, as higher assessments from the era of peak prices continue to track up.

That's chilling, because it implies that state and local governments will continue to see revenues fall as assessments are updated to track the market down. Now the level of dependence on real estate related revenue varies widely. But on average it suggests that even if incomes begin to recover, government revenues will continue to fall.

Indeed, a recent paper by Cogan and Taylor quantifies the magnitude of the downturn: budget cuts by state and local governments fully offset the much-maligned Obama stimulus package. They had earlier taken a stand on the "multiplier" (the extent to which an expenditure increase or tax cut would stimulate activity). [Look for a discussion of multiplier estimates by Brad de Long.] But when they went to check what ex post performance might show, they found a problem that rendered that discussion moot: ex post, there was no multiplicand to be multiplied. Of course that's not reassuring going forward, because in 2011 there won't be a stimulus package to offset what state and local government are doing. When teachers are fired next summer, and as road maintenance crews are axed and parks closed, there won't be anyone stepping in to hire them or pay for them to be rehired. Now Cogan and Taylor think the multiplier is small; I'm not convinced by their arguments. But small multiplier or large, the job losses will be real.

John F. Cogan and John B. Taylor, "What the Government Purchases Multiplier Actually Multiplied in the 2009 Stimulus Package." National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper No. 16505, October 2010. http://www.nber.org/papers/w16505

If we thought banks were too big to fail, what of the government of the 10th largest economy in the world, California? They are starting their 2011 budget cycle with a $25 billion deficit and a long period of underfunding state and local pension funds. I doubt there's enough available for cutting on the expenditure side, and while I've never lived there, my sense is that there is no ability to enhance revenue, given the demonstrated ability of vocal citizens' movements to impede government via referenda. Pundits may be comparing us to Greece to argue that we need to cut the Federal deficit, but they really don't understand the dynamics of bond markets. But they can and should look at California, and ask whether we will feel compelled to bail them out as the EU did with Greece.

Mike Smitka

Addenda

Readers might see a contrarian position at Slate Moneybox, Default Position: Why we needn't worry too much about municipal bankruptcy by Annie Lowry. She argues first that the incentives are strong to avoid bankruptcy, while a crisis increases policy options. Second, though only implicit in her argument, bond holders can be forced to renogotiate without bankruptcy. While she does not mention it, many bonds are very close to private placements, and that facilitates renegotiating debt. (I handled sovereign debt renegotiations during a banking career decades back.) Third, and again less explicit, the biggest obligations are not formal bonds but retirement systems. It may be possible to renege on those -- tell retirees "no more pension." That may not need Chapter 9. In sum, all of those lessen the role of formal bankruptcy.

Elsewhere I calculated the numbers for California. Their accounting is arcane, but at the state level the budget is around $100 billion with a projected $25 billion deficit. That means tax receipts of $75 billion, so that closing the gap via revenue enhancement would in the extreme require a 33% increase in taxes (and more in tax rates, given exemptions). But in the background California's GDP is approximately $1 trillion, so the gap is on the order of 2.5% of personal and corporate incomes. Of course the state has perhaps $500 billion in unfunded pension obligations. Now in most places where I've lived government salaries are below market so these pensions are in effect part of the total package. I don't believe it ethical to adjust those retroactively. But in any case the magnitude of the problem is well within the taxing ability of the state, without leading to exorbitant rates. The problem is one of politics, not economics.

County's Lack of Pedestrian and Bicycle Traffic Law Enforcement is Appalling

Hello Yupette,

I am 55 years old and drive around Arlington in my Honda Civic on the usual errands. This past weekend I saw the worst behavior by pedestrians and bicyclists I have ever seen. Massive jaywalking, people on all kinds of bicycles running stop signs and traffic lights, runners running down the middle of streets, parents pushing strollers in the middle of the street. And most of these people were dressed in black or dark colors.

Who started the share the road insanity? Wasn't it Fisette? Will Jay Fisette visit the people who end up in the hospital because of his Yuppie recreation craziness?

Please, if you are going to walk, bicycle, run, or push a stroller down the middle of a street at least wear a bright-colored shirt or jacket.

Ken

Many Planning Charades Scheduled This Week

Hi Yupette,

County Board and its minions have scheduled a number of charade public meetings this week - planning has been completed per the County Board's specifications. Citizens, taxpayers, voters are only allowed to make insignificant changes. OK, so here' a list of the meetings.

Monday, November 15th

Columbia Pike Transportation (Pike Trolley) Planning Meeting, Godwin House, 3440 South Jefferson St., 7-9 PM

East Falls Church Area Plan Open House, Tuckahoe Elementary School, 6550 N. 26th St., 6-9 PM

Master Transportation Plan Community Meeting, Navy League Building, 2200 Wilson Blvd., 7-9 PM

Tuesday, November 16th

County Board Meeting, 2100 Clarendon Blvd., 6:30 PM

Wednesday, November 17th

Community Energy Planning Meeting, Navy League Building, 2200 Wilson Blvd. 6-9 PM

Thursday, November 18th

Community Energy Planning Meeting, Central Library, 7:30-10 AM

Ten Year Plan to Eliminate Homelessness Meeting, Holiday Inn at Ballston, 4610 N. Fairfax Dr., 8-10 AM

Columbia Pike Transportation (Pike Trolley) Meeting, Walter Reed Community Center, 2909 S 16th St., 7-9 PM

Saturday, November 20th

East Falls Church Area Plan Open House, Resurrection Lutheran Church, 6201 Washington Blvd, 1-3 PM

Mark 22205

County Covernment, Media, Misled Citizens About Student Population Growth

Hello, Yupette,

Why are Arlington's schools facing seriously overcrowded conditions over the next five years? Because both County Government and the local media misled citizens and voters about the size of the student population increase. Why? So school board incumbents (who the local media endorse) could build more Tah Mahal schools that will primarily function as sports and recreation centers. By the way, Arlington County employs a full-time demographer and the school system conducts a biennial census of Arlington residences.

Margaret - 22206

Ballston BID Would Fund More Live Theater

Hi, Yupette,

In the event you wondered why the County Board is advertising for a business improvement district (special tax district) for Ballston, it's the primary means of getting another performing arts center constructed, this time in the Ballston-Clarendon area, most likely on the site of the present Arlington Funeral Home. Jay Fisette is looking to put at least two live theater groups in Ballston. The Ballston BID would generate at least $3 million yearly that Fisette and other County Board members could use for vanity projects.

2100

Arlington's Kids: 'Team Sports Ate All the Time for My Homework'.

Hello, Yupette,

It's 7 P.M. What are your kids doing? Not watching television. Not hanging out at the mall. No, they're either playing team sports or have just come home from playing team sports. Homework? Not a priority in Arlington's public schools, except it's become a take-home test our kids are graded on every day. Wake up Parents! Arlington is becoming a vast recreation, entertainment, sports complex, thanks to the Yuptards who run the County via the County Board and School Board.

Cindy - 22206

Christmas in November for Entertainment-Recreation at Next County Board Meeting

Hey Yupette,

County Board agenda for Saturday's meeting is posted on the County's Web site, arlingtonva.us. Loaded with stuff for entertainment and recreation interests, including up to $850,000 to refurbish the synthetic surface on ONE playing field. Also several live entertainment use permits involving music, which will ensure a loooong County Board meeting. So bring sleeping bags and pillows if you plan on attending.

Pikester

Post Report - Metro Was Not Following Its Own Escalator / Elevator Maintenance Standards

Hi Yupette,

Well I'm definitely no longer commuting to work via MetroRail. The Post reported today that Metro does not regularly inspect its elevators and escalators. What kind of public transportation system is WMATA, anyway? In Virginia we have to get our brakes checked every year as part of the annual safety inspection to be able to register our vehicles. And I thought escalators and elevators were supposed to be inspected every year. Every day another unpleasant surprise from WMATA.

Terri --- 22201

Another Week - Another Scathing Post Report About Metrorail Safety

Hello Yupette,

Looks as though the Metro Station escalator problem is more serious than previously reported. Sixteen Metro passengers were injured. The escalator failure was catastrophic. Meanwhile, out here in Virginia, the Post reports the new Silver Line includes every cosmetic amenity that WMATA Board Member Chris "Lipstick on a Pig" Zinmmerman ordered but excludes basic security features.

I've had it. I won't ride Metrorail again until Chris Zimmerman resigns from the WMATA Board. Let's replace the politricksters on the WMATA Board with transportation professionals.

Larry - 22201

Next Up for Re-Selection: Mary 'Party's Over Here' Hynes

Hey Yupette,

Guess who's up for re-selection to the County Board next year? Arlington's most awesome Partyer, Mary 'Party's Over Here' Hynes. She was soooo awesome on the School Board, making my kid's school (Abingdon Elementary) into a world class kids' party zone. Party only ended when some dorky parents complained that their kids weren't learning, only partying. Weren't learning what? How to read and write? Who needs reading and writing. My daughter, little Buffy, can't read or write and she's a Barbara Favola Scholar at Marymount University, majoring in in Soccer and minoring in Field Hockey. I'm soooo happy Mary has successfully transitioned - from making dull schools into party schools to making this dull County into an exciting Party Zone.

Buffington Muffington

Greens Scored Against Well-Financed, Media Supported Incumbents

Congratulations to Kevin Chisholm, Ron Fisher, and Miriam Gennari for doing well against well-funded and media-supported incumbents. Green and Independent candidates need only one more thing to win - enough campaign funds to overcome the incumbents' campaign financing advantage and the significant media bias against third party and independent candidates.

The Election and the Stock Market

It is hard to understand why Republican gains in Congress are leading to a jump on Wall Street: if we listen to their rhetoric, they are promising us fiscal stringency, hard-nosed policies towards those indebted and thereby not recovery (given the role both play in our economy) but further economic pain.

But maybe I listen (well, read) too much. Ronald Reagan ran as a fiscal conservative, deriding the deficits of Jimmy Carter; Bush II couldn’t complain about deficits because he inherited a surplus, but nevertheless paraded as a conservative. Those running for Congress did the same. Yet at least in terms of economic policy they were radical Keynesians, increasing the size of government. To take the more recent case, under Bush II every single department of the Federal government expanded, while he expanded welfare via the huge prescription drug supplement to Medicare). Yet both cut taxes rather than finding a means to pay for their profligacy.

Will things be better this time around? Or will we have a stalemate in Washington? – for better or (right now) for worse, Obama seems to be a real fiscal conservative (woe is us). So the impetus of Congress (or at least Republican congresses) to spend and spend [and not offset that with taxes] may go nowhere.

Of course we know that financial markets are efficient and thus incorporate knowledge of the future: about half the time when markets go up the performance of the economy proves better than the average forecast....now for you students in intro statistics, why is that somehow less than reassuring?

Mike Smitka